I have been kind of going crazy in the last few days. Next week is the Bazar of Moxen, the biggest tournament we have in France, and I have 2 formats to prepare for. Normally I would not care about Legacy at all, but since GP Strasbourg, I can't say that's the case anymore. For those of you who don't know what the BOM is, it is a huge Legacy tournament that takes place in Annecy - France (A very beautiful place by the way), that has better prizes then a GP. There is also other very profitable tournaments in different formats: Vintage, EDH, Standard and a PTQ.
The reason why I’m going crazy is because I have no clue in what to play. Dragon's Maze just came out, but the cards aren't legal until this weekend, so it means we won't have real tournaments to base our choices for the event. My big concern of course is the PTQ, but there seems to be so many choices that I don't know where to start brewing. The last French PTQ/WCMQ weekend had the following stats:
Gruul Agro : 4 (4%) Naya Blitz : 6 (7%) Aristocrat : 13 (14%) Zombie : 4 (4%) Bant Hexproof : 2 (2%)
Other Agro : 5 (6% Bant Control (Midrange) : 4 (4%) Jund Control (midrange) : 8 (9%) Uwr Midrange : 14 (16%) Esper Control : 6 (7%) 4CControle : 4 (4%) Other controls: 4 (4%) Réanimator : 16 (18%)
In the top 8: 3 UWR, 2 Aristocrats, 1 jund Agro, 1 bant control, 1 esper control (Who won the event).
Before analyzing that, there some major factors to consider (this is pure speculation):
1) This PTQ is in a Wednesday (although holiday bank) in a very distant location, and a big part of the grinders that do not play legacy don't think its worthy going;
2) There are no major tournaments to take lists from, so people will probably tweak their decks by one or two cards, but I don't expect new archetypes to pop out very strong;
3) Card availability may be an issue;
4) The legacy players that will play the PTQ won't be invested in standard (not very well prepared);
5) Many people will have already left for the PT San Diego.
I guess this means: This is a great chance to qualify. I'm not taking people for granted, I just think that seen the High Level competition that French PTQ's normaly are, this is a great opportunity.
Back at the stats: Reanimator was by far the most played strategy on the last events, but UWR and ESPER were the most represented decks on the top8. Aristocrats is another issue, so lets take a look at this 3 archetypes:
REANIMATOR:
Strengths: Strong Midrange strategy and it does not depends exclusively on the graveyard to win. Dominates board states quite fast and with hard to deal threats. King of the midranges.
Weakness: Control decks, very fast agro decks and Threaten effects (Naya Blitz/MonoRed/ Aristocrats).
UWR and ESPER
Strengths: You do not have many threats, but you can deal with everything (or almost) your opponents plays. Counter Magic, Wrath, Spot Removal, you have it all, all you need is a finisher and you are good to go. That can be Angels, Nephalia Drownyard, Aetherling, Assembly the Legions or planeswalkers. (Add win out of nowhere if it contains Boros Reckoner/Harvest Pyre)
Weakness: Cavern of Souls, Hand disruption/Slaughter games, not drawing the right solution on time/Acidic Slime.
Aristocrats:
Strengths: This deck is a combo deck disguised as a midrange strategy. Cartel and Falkenrath are such strong cards that if left unchecked will dominate the game. Versions with Reckoner and Blood Artist ("Act II") can be even more tricky, so you need to be really careful with it. The best thing is that most people don't know how to play against it.
Weakness: Eletrickery, Staticaster, Terminous, Tragic Slip, Rest in Peace, Sigarda, Curse of Deaths Hold, Craterhoof Behemoth, Blood Baron, Renounce the Guilds, Warped Physique. I think the deck looses a lot with dragon's maze, but it will still be played.
Agro decks do not gain much with Dragon's Maze, but probably a few Jund agro players will try to integrate new cards like Syre of Insanity and Ruric Thar. Speaking of them, I think JUND Midrange should play Syre, as if your control opponents do not have an answer on the spot, they will probably loose the game. Anyway, its probably very bad against Reanimator, and if the trends continues, I would not play JUND.
So the question is, what should I play? I want to be able to beat those decks if I want to have a chance at actually winning the tournament. If it wasn't for Renounce the Guilds and Wraped Physique (As well as far/away) giving ESPER good weapons against Aristocrats, I think that would be my choice. I also think that people have already learned how to play against it, so the deck lost most of its force. UWR is the next on my list, but If I am going to play it I want to be well prepared against the mirror (and also find a way to beat ESPER). Wait a second... Maybe ESPER is the deck to play, I just need to find a good list!
There is another strategy that Im interested... Im not going to say a lot about it because is untested theory, but I will leave you guys with a picture of its core...
Talk to you guys soon!
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